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OG2022 Between 1980 and 2000 the sea otter population of the Aleutian Islands declined precipitously. There were no signs of disease or malnutrition, so there was probably an increase in the number of otters being eaten by predators. Orcas will eat otters when seals, their normal prey, are unavailable, and the Aleutian Islands seal population declined dramatically in the 1980s. Therefore, orcas were most likely the immediate cause of the otter population decline. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?
OG2022 Coffee shop owner: A large number of customers will pay at least the fair market value for a cup of coffee, even if there is no formal charge. Some will pay more than this out of appreciation of the trust that is placed in them. And our total number of customers is likely to increase. We could therefore improve our net cash flow by implementing an honor system in which customers pay what they wish for coffee by depositing money in a can. Manager: We`re likely to lose money on this plan. Many customers would cheat the system, paying a very small sum or nothing at all. Which of the following, if true, would best support the owner`s plan, in light of the manager`s concern?
OG2022 In many corporations, employees are being replaced by automated equipment in order to save money. However, many workers who lose their jobs to automation will need government assistance to survive, and the same corporations that are laying people off will eventually pay for that assistance through increased taxes and unemployment insurance payments. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the author's argument?
OG2022 The heavy traffic in Masana is a growing drain on the city's economy--the clogging of the streets of the central business district alone cost the economy more than $1.2 billion over the past year. In order to address this problem, officials plan to introduce congestion pricing, by which drivers would pay to enter the city`s most heavily trafficked areas during the busiest times of the day. Which of the following, if true, would most strongly indicate that the plan will be a success?
OG2022 Until now, only injectable vaccines against influenza have been available. They have been used primarily by older adults, who are at risk for complications from influenza. A new vaccine administered in a nasal spray has proven effective in preventing influenza in children. Since children are significantly more likely than adults to contract and spread influenza, making the new vaccine widely available for children will greatly reduce the spread of influenza across the population. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?
OG2022 Researchers took a group of teenagers who had never smoked and for one year tracked whether they took up smoking and how their mental health changed. Those who began smoking within a month of the study's start were four times as likely to be depressed at the study's end than those who did not begin smoking. Since nicotine in cigarettes changes brain chemistry, perhaps thereby affecting mood, it is likely that smoking contributes to depression in teenagers. Which of the following, if true, most strengthens the argument?
OG2022 Archaeologists use technology to analyze ancient sites. It is likely that this technology will advance considerably in the near future, allowing archaeologists to gather more information than is currently possible. If they study certain sites now, they risk contaminating or compromising them for future studies. Therefore, in order to maximize the potential for gathering knowledge in the long run, a team of archaeologists plans to delay the examination of a newly excavated site. Which of the following would be most useful to investigate for the purpose of evaluating the plan's prospects for achieving its goal?
OG2022 Hardin argued that grazing land held in common (that is, open to any user) would always be used less carefully than private grazing land. Each rancher would be tempted to over use common land because the benefits would accrue to the individual, while the costs of reduced land quality that results from overuse would be spread among all users. But a study comparing 217 million acres of common grazing land with 433 million acres of private grazing land showed that the common land was in better condition. The answer to which of the following questions would be most useful in evaluating the significance, in relation to Hardin's claim, of the study described above?
OG2022 Plantings of cotton bioengineered to produce its own insecticide against bollworms, a major cause of crop failure, sustained little bollworm damage until this year. This year the plantings are being seriously damaged by bollworms. Bollworms, however, are not necessarily developing resistance to the cotton's insecticide. Bollworms breed on corn, and last year more corn than usual was planted throughout cotton-growing regions. So it is likely that the cotton is simply being overwhelmed by corn-bred bollworms. In evaluating the argument, which of the following would it be most useful to establish?
OG2022 In the past, every ten-percentage-point increase in cigarette prices in the country of Coponia has decreased per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent. Coponia is about to raise taxes on cigarettes by 9 cents per pack. The average price of cigarettes in Coponia is and has been for more than a year 90 cents per pack. So the tax hike stands an excellent chance of reducing per capita sales of cigarettes by four percent. Which of the following is an assumption on which the argument depends?
OG2022 The city of Workney, in raising bus fares from $1.00 to $1.25, proposed that 18 fare tokens be sold for $20.00 to alleviate the extra burden of the fare increase on the city's low-income residents. Critics suggested alternatively that 9 fare tokens be sold for $10.00, because a $20.00 outlay would be prohibitive for low-income riders. The alternative proposal depends on which of the following assumptions?
OG2022 For most people, the left half of the brain controls linguistic capabilities, but some people have their language centers in the right half. When a language center of the brain is damaged, for example by a stroke, linguistic capabilities are impaired in some way. Therefore, people who have suffered a serious stroke on the left side of the brain without suffering any such impairment must have their language centers in the right half. Which of the following is an assumption on which the reasoning in the argument above depends?
OG2022 From 1900 until the 1930s, pellagra, a disease later discovered to result from a deficiency of the vitamin niacin, was common among poor cotton farmers in the United States whose diet consisted mostly of corn, the least costly food they could buy. Corn does not contain niacin in usable form. Curiously, during the Depression of the early 1930s, when cotton's price collapsed and cotton farmers' income declined, the incidence of pellagra among those farmers also declined. Which of the following, if true, most helps to explain the decline in the incidence of pellagra?
OG2022 Political theorist: Even with the best spies, area experts, and satellite surveillance, foreign policy assessments can still lack important information. In such circumstances intuitive judgment is vital. A national leader with such judgment can make good decisions about foreign policy even when current information is incomplete, since_______ . Which of the following, if true, most logically completes the argument?
OG2022 Which of the following most logically completes the argument? Utrania was formerly a major petroleum exporter, but in recent decades economic stagnation and restrictive regulations inhibited investment in new oil fields. In consequence, Utranian oil exports dropped steadily as old fields became depleted. Utrania's currently improving economic situation, together with less restrictive regulations, will undoubtedly result in the rapid development of new fields. However, it would be premature to conclude that the rapid development of new fields will result in higher oil exports, because______.
OG2022 Since it has become known that several of a bank's top executives have been buying shares in their own bank, the bank's depositors, who had been worried by rumors that the bank faced impending financial collapse, have been greatly relieved. They reason that, since top executives evidently have faith in the bank's financial soundness, those worrisome rumors must be false. Such reasoning might well be overoptimistic, however, since corporate executives have been known to buy shares in their own company in a calculated attempt to dispel negative rumors about the company's health. In the argument given, the two boldfaced portions play which of the following roles?
OG2022 Boreal owls range over a much larger area than do other owls of similar size. Scientists have hypothesized that it is scarcity of prey that leads the owls to range so widely. This hypothesis would be hard to confirm directly, since it is not possible to produce a sufficiently accurate count of the populations of small mammals inhabiting the forests where boreal owls live. Careful study of owl behavior has, however, shown that boreal owls do range over larger areas when they live in regions where food of the sort eaten by small mammals is comparatively sparse. This indicates that the scientists' hypothesis is not sheer speculation. In the argument given, the two boldfaced portions play which of the following roles?
OG2022 Astronomer: Most stars are born in groups of thousands, each star in a group forming from the same parent cloud of gas. Each cloud has a unique, homogeneous chemical composition. Therefore, whenever two stars have the same chemical composition as each other, they must have originated from the same cloud of gas. Which of the following, if true, would most strengthen the astronomer's argument?
OG2022 Smithtown University's fund-raisers succeeded in getting donations from 80 percent of the potential donors they contacted. This success rate, exceptionally high for university fund-raisers, does not indicate that they were doing a good job. On the contrary, since the people most likely to donate are those who have donated in the past, good fund-raisers constantly try less-likely prospects in an effort to expand the donor base. The high success rate shows insufficient canvassing effort. Which of the following, if true, provides more support for the argument?
OG2022 Letter to the editor: Our city plans to allow major commercial development along the south waterfront and, in so doing, to increase its tax revenue. But, to succeed commercially, the development would inevitably create far more road traffic than the existing roads to the waterfront can handle, causing serious congestion. Providing enough roads or public transportation to the area would cost far more than the city could gain from the increased tax revenue. Which of the following, if added to the city's plan, would be most likely to help solve the problem the letter describes?
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